Analysis: Despite loss, Jaick C Thomas put up a good fight in Puthuppally

The United Democratic Front (UDF), led by the Congress, dispelled all worries by successfully retaining its assembly seat in Kottayam's Puthuppally Constituency. UDF candidate Chandy Oommen earned a clear mandate, defeating LDF candidate Jaick C. Thomas (CPM) by a margin of 37719 votes and securing his place in the Kerala Assembly.

The result is a wake-up call for LDF ahead of the crucial Lok Sabha polls next year. The campaign based on the LDF government's developmental achievements wasn't enough for Puthuppally to shun its long-standing affinity to Congress and late Kerala CM Oommen Chandy. The mammoth lead of Chandy Oommen clearly shows how UDF had managed to overcome LDF's efforts to turn the tides in Puthuppally in their favour. 

LDF leaders targeted Chandy's family, particularly his daughter Achu Oommen, by making arguments that the former Chief Minister was not receiving sufficient medical care in his final days. However, it appeared that such political tactics had a significant impact on the LDF, with pundits claiming that people haven't forgotten the CPM's witch hunt of late Oommen Chandy during his tenure as Chief Minister. 

At the same time, LDF candidate Jaick C. Thomas's defeat cannot be viewed entirely as a setback for CPM or the LDF government. Despite knowing that the odds were stacked against him, the CPM hoped to turn his works in the constituency into votes. Unfortunately, the UDF bastion remains unfazed by the CPM or LDF's political strategies. 

UDF leveraged the "Chandy factor" to retain the Congress bastion in Kottayam and stop LDF from receiving any leverage ahead of the Lok Sabha Polls. The LDF, on the other hand, had banked the hope on Jaick to rekindle the magic of the 2021 Assembly election when he dented Chandy's vote share in his constituency. 

Even before Jaick, Puthuppally has always been the CPM's political laboratory, where LDF had fielded upcoming leaders such as Reji Zachariah and Sindhu Joy without success. At a time when the tension was brewing between two prevalent Christian communities in the state, the CPM pitted Jaick, a Jacobite, against Chandy, belonging to the Orthodox church. Though several Jacobite churches exist in Puthuppally, the formula hasn't worked in favour of CPM, with recent results showing voters' attitudes towards such politics. The result also indicates that voters are unsatisfied with the rise in unemployment, inflation, communal unrest, and regional politics. 

Jaick had been an omnipresent figure in Puthuppally since the 2016 Assembly Elections. Back then, the young communist leader was no match for a seasoned leader like Oommen Chandy. Therefore, it was no surprise when Chandy emerged victorious with an overwhelming margin of 27,092 votes back then. 

Fast forward to the 2019 Assembly election, and the LDF once again put their faith in Jaick to challenge Chandy in the constituency. Unlike in 2016, things were not going as well for Oommen Chandy, who now faces the prospect of losing his sitting seat for the first time since he received the mandate in his favour in 1971. However, in a massive relief for UDF, voters backed Chandy again, albeit by a narrow margin of 9,044 votes. 

Despite the setback, it elevates Jaick's standing as the most promising leader in the CPM ranks. When we look at the LDF's defeat in the Thrikkakara by-election in 2022, we see that CPM candidate Jo Joseph was swept away by a sentiment wave in favour of UDF candidate Uma Thomas. Jaick's performance has been assuring for LDF as he managed to secure more than 40,000 votes despite the "Chandy factor". Also, the present mandate does not guarantee that Congress will have an upper hand in Puthuppally during the 2026 Assembly Elections. 

Meanwhile, the byelection also presented a prime opportunity for the left to evaluate the LDF government's accomplishments and gauge public backing in Kerala in anticipation of the pivotal Lok Sabha election in 2024