Exit polls miss the mark as election results unfold in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana

As the election results for the Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana assemblies unfold, it is clear that exit polls are not aligning with the emerging trends. Early results indicate unexpected outcomes in both regions.

Exit polls in Haryana
Exit polls had widely predicted a strong performance for the Congress in Haryana. The Dainik Bhaskar exit poll forecasted 44-54 seats for Congress and 15-29 for the BJP in the 90-member assembly. The Republic-Matrize poll had an even more optimistic outlook for Congress, predicting 55-62 seats, while giving the BJP 18-24.

The Red Mike-Datansh exit poll estimated 50-55 seats for Congress, with the BJP predicted to win 20-25. Dhruv Research further elevated Congress' chances with a 50-64 seat projection, and the BJP trailing with 22-32 seats. Similarly, Peoples' Pulse exit poll suggested Congress might secure 49-60 seats, while BJP was expected to win 20-32.

Meanwhile, several polls predicted the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) would outperform the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), though estimates ranged, with some polls predicting up to 10 seats for others.

Exit polls in Jammu and Kashmir
In Jammu and Kashmir, exit polls also painted a picture of a close contest between the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance and the BJP. The C-Voter-India Today survey anticipated 40-48 seats for the NC-Congress alliance and 27-32 for the BJP in the 90-member assembly.

Dainik Bhaskar predicted a smaller margin, giving the NC-Congress alliance 35-40 seats and BJP 20-25. Peoples' Pulse saw the alliance winning between 46-50 seats, with the BJP securing 23-27. Republic-Gulistan forecasted a tighter race, with the NC-Congress alliance taking 31-36 seats and the BJP 28-30.

The People's Democratic Party (PDP) was expected to gain 5-12 seats across various polls, while other parties were projected to win 4-16 seats.

Actual results show different picture
As results come in, trends indicate a surprising deviation from these exit polls. In Haryana, the BJP is now leading in 49 of the 90 seats, a notable increase from the 40 seats it secured in 2019. This contradicts exit polls that had shown a clear lead for the Congress.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the NC-Congress alliance is leading with 52 seats, exceeding many of the exit poll predictions. The INC alone is leading in 35 seats, compared to its 31-seat lead in 2019. The BJP is currently ahead in 26 seats, and other parties are leading in 6 seats. The INLD is leading in 1 seat, while the PDP is leading in 3 seats.