Opinion poll predicts BJP crossing 96 seats in Assam; Congress to secure a maximum of 28 seats

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to retain power in Assam with a comfortable majority, according to the IANS-Matrize Opinion Poll. The survey suggests that voters remain largely satisfied with the government led by Himanta Biswa Sarma and are likely to return it to office in the upcoming Assembly elections.

The poll indicates that the BJP could secure a decisive mandate, overcoming any signs of anti-incumbency and maintaining a strong lead over its main rival, the Congress.

Poll projections point to clear BJP advantage

According to the opinion poll, the ruling party is forecast to win between 96 and 98 seats in the 140-member Assembly, suggesting a commanding majority.

The survey also estimates that the BJP could receive 43–44 per cent of the vote share, translating into the projected seat tally.

Meanwhile, other parties and independent candidates are expected to obtain a moderate share of votes. However, the findings indicate that their numbers would not be significant enough to influence the formation of the next government.

Congress expected to trail despite improved showing

The poll suggests that the Congress may improve its performance but still fall well short of challenging the ruling party.

The party is projected to secure 39–40 per cent of the vote share, which could translate into around 26–28 seats in the Assembly.

Despite the potential improvement, the survey indicates that the Congress is unlikely to pose a serious electoral challenge to the BJP in the contest for power.

Election schedule announced; political contest intensifies

Earlier on Saturday, Rajiv Kumar, the Chief Election Commissioner, announced the polling schedule for four states and one Union Territory — Puducherry.

Polling in Assam will take place in a single phase on April 9, alongside voting in Kerala. The results are scheduled to be declared on May 4.

Soon after the announcement, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma reacted on social media.

“Yato dharmastato jayah,” he said in a post on X, which means where there is righteousness, there is victory.

Meanwhile, the electoral contest in Assam continues to intensify. Himanta Biswa Sarma is aiming for a second term in office, while the Congress, led by Gaurav Gogoi, is seeking a breakthrough.

The state has seen heightened political activity in recent weeks and months. The Congress has also witnessed exits by several senior leaders, including Bhupen Borah.