83% higher cyclone strength? ISRO forecasts 3 storms in North Indian Ocean for Oct-Dec 2026

The North Indian Ocean could see a more active cyclone season in the final three months of 2026, with three tropical cyclones projected to form between October and December, according to an estimate cited by ISRO.

What stands out is not just the projected number of storms. The combined Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for the three cyclones is estimated at around 13.06 × 10⁶ knots³ — about 83% higher than the strength associated with the previous 44 cyclones.

The projection points to potentially stronger cyclone activity during the 2026 post-monsoon season, although it does not mean that three cyclones will necessarily make landfall in India.

Why the 2026 cyclone forecast is drawing attention

The October-December period is being flagged for potentially elevated cyclone activity across the North Indian Ocean.

The estimate is based on several decades of ocean and atmospheric data. Around 40 years of weather and ocean observations were studied to identify the conditions that can influence the formation and intensity of tropical cyclones.

Data available between January and August was also used to assess what cyclone activity could look like during the October-December post-monsoon period.

The resulting estimate suggests that the coming season could be considerably more active in terms of cyclone strength than the average represented by the previous 44 cyclones.

What does 83% higher cyclone strength mean?

The figure comes from the Power Dissipation Index, commonly referred to as PDI.

PDI is used to assess the overall energy or strength of cyclone activity by considering factors including how powerful a storm's winds are and how long the system remains at strength.

A higher PDI therefore points to stronger overall cyclone activity.

For 2026, the estimated PDI is around 13.06 × 10⁶ knots³. The figure is about 83% above the strength associated with the previous 44 cyclones, making it one of the key numbers in the seasonal projection.

That does not mean every individual storm will be 83% stronger. The figure relates to the overall projected cyclone activity and strength represented by the PDI.

When could the 2026 cyclones form?

The forecast window covers October, November and December 2026, the post-monsoon cyclone season for the North Indian Ocean.

The estimate points to three tropical cyclones potentially developing during these three months.

However, a seasonal forecast is different from the forecast issued for an individual cyclone. It cannot determine months in advance the exact date on which a storm will form or the path it will take.

Will these cyclones hit India?

There is no indication in the supplied forecast that all three systems will hit India.

The projection concerns overall cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean.

For India, the forecast is still relevant because increased cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean can make preparedness particularly important for coastal regions.