Eedina forecasts 13+ LS seats for Cong

In a remarkable turn of events, the small independent web portal Eedina took Karnataka's political and media landscape by storm with its accurate predictions for the Assembly elections held in 2023. Defying expectations and conventional wisdom, Eedina was the only media outlet to forecast the election results with such precision, leaving political analysts in awe.

Eedina, a relatively unknown entity, embarked on an extensive survey involving 52,678 participants across Karnataka between 15 February and 5 March 2023. This survey was conducted before any political party had announced its candidates. On 26 and 27 April 2023, the portal published its predictions: Congress would secure between 132 and 140 seats, the BJP would win 57-65 seats, and the JD(S) would lag behind with 19-25 seats.

As the actual results rolled in, Eedina's forecast proved uncannily accurate. The Congress won 135 seats, the BJP got 66, and the JD(S) managed just 19. This startling accuracy captivated the state, as many marvelled at Eedina's seeming ability to see into the future. 

Eedina's success in the Assembly elections has now cast a spotlight on its latest pre-poll surveys for the 2024 Karnataka Lok Sabha elections. According to survey results released on 16 April, the Congress is projected to win between 13 and 18 of Karnataka's 28 Lok Sabha seats, while the BJP-JD(S) alliance is expected to secure between 10 and 13 seats. These predictions come from a survey conducted with 42,674 respondents between 28 March and 14 April, after all candidate announcements.

Interestingly, a separate survey conducted before the candidates were announced also pointed to a Congress advantage. This earlier survey, conducted from 15 February to 5 March 2024 with 52,678 respondents, predicted Congress winning 11 seats and the BJP-JD(S) alliance taking 10. It also suggested a decline in the BJP's vote share for the first time since the 1996 elections in Karnataka.

The backdrop to these predictions is significant. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP dominated with 25 seats, Congress won only one seat, JD(S) secured one, and an Independent supported by BJP took another. Eedina's current predictions thus hint at a major shift in voter sentiment.

According to Eedina, their systematic random sampling method, with door-to-door, face-to-face surveys, helped them achieve such accuracy in 2023. Apart from data, insights from interactions over various issues were also published, and they believe the same approach will help maintain accuracy for the Lok Sabha elections as well. 

Meanwhile, HV Vasu, Eedina's research head, noted that these results are pre-poll and that they didn't conduct  exit polls due to higher resource requirements. He also mentioned there are no fresh insights on voter turnout and patterns after the elections took place. "Pre-poll results and the final mandate may have some minor variations. However, the general reading is that things are not so favourable for the BJP," he added.

As the election counting date approaches, all eyes are on Eedina to see if it can replicate its forecasting success.