Satheesan takes power, Pinarayi takes position

Kerala politics suddenly looks alive again. With the Congress high command finally managing to name VD Satheesan as Chief Minister after nearly ten days of drama, confusion and the usual Delhi circus, and with the LDF announcing Pinarayi Vijayan as the Leader of the Opposition, Kerala is now headed into what could become one of the most politically-combative phases in recent memory.

To be fair to the Congress, they seem to have avoided making the kind of blunders they made in states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Kerala is not a state where the high command can casually parachute in a decision disconnected from public sentiment and expect the cadre and voters to quietly fall in line.

The voters here are politically far more aware and far more invested in internal party dynamics than in most parts of the country. Even with KC Venugopal's influence in the so-called high command, which essentially means influence with the family consisting of the brother, mother and sister, somebody somewhere must have finally managed to brief them about the mood on the ground.

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Because, among those who voted the Congress-led UDF to power with a thumping majority, there was little doubt about who the face of that victory was. VD Satheesan almost single-handedly captained the political and social engineering that dismantled what many in the LDF believed would be an easy third consecutive term.

Instead, the Left suffered one of its most humiliating defeats in decades, with the UDF crossing the hundred-seat mark in a 140-member assembly. And Satheesan himself seemed to know exactly what he was doing.

Very few politicians put their own political future on the line before an election. Satheesan did. He publicly stated that he would quit politics if the UDF failed to win decisively or failed to cross the kind of numbers he was projecting. That level of confidence does not come from mere sloganeering. It comes from a very clear reading of the public mood and from confidence in the strategy being executed.

For years, Satheesan had steadily built the image of being perhaps the most effective opposition leader the Congress had produced in Kerala in a long, long time. His interventions inside the assembly were usually well prepared, detailed and aggressive without descending into theatrical noise. Whether one agreed with him or not, he rarely looked uninformed. And in a state like Kerala, where political debates are followed closely even outside hardcore party circles, that matters.

What also became impossible to ignore during the campaign was the intensity with which the Left camp targeted him. From the beginning of the election campaign, the LDF's online machinery went after Satheesan relentlessly. Memes, coordinated posts, selective clips, personal attacks, insinuations, and narratives designed to undermine his credibility flooded social media spaces.

Also Read: What we know about VD Satheesan's personal life

In many ways, the methods increasingly resembled the aggressive digital ecosystem perfected by the BJP at the national level. Political parties do not spend this much energy attacking somebody they consider politically insignificant. And even during the prolonged discussions happening in Delhi over the Chief Minister's post, one got the sense that there was considerable interest from the Left camp over whether Satheesan would ultimately get the job. Because if there is one thing the Left understands very well, it is political threat perception.

Satheesan becoming Chief Minister changes the nature of the battle completely. Until now, he operated with the freedom of an opposition leader. He could question, expose, accuse and attack. And he did all of that very effectively against Pinarayi Vijayan's government over the last several years. But governance is an entirely different arena.

Allegations raised from opposition benches create expectations once power is obtained. The public will now expect action, investigations and accountability. And that is where things become politically fascinating. Because the man sitting across him in the assembly will not be an inexperienced opposition leader struggling to find relevance. It will be Pinarayi Vijayan.

Whatever one's opinion about him may be, Pinarayi remains one of the most formidable political operators Kerala has seen in decades. Disciplined, combative, experienced and extremely message-conscious, he knows exactly how to control political narratives and how to turn defensive situations into political counterattacks.

Which means Kerala is now entering a complete reversal of roles. Satheesan moves from being the relentless challenger to being the man responsible for administration, delivery and governance. Pinarayi moves from being the embattled incumbent facing anti-incumbency to becoming the aggressor once again from the opposition benches. That will make the assembly extraordinarily volatile in the coming years.

There is also another challenge before Satheesan. The image he has built over the years is that of a serious, upright and well-prepared politician. That image helped him enormously in this election. But such an image also creates very high expectations. The same people who saw him as a corrective force against what they viewed as arrogance, opacity and excessive centralisation under the previous government will now expect visible changes in governance.

Also Read: Will build a new Kerala, fulfil Congress promises: V D Satheesan

And Kerala voters are not patient forever. Political halos are created very quickly here and destroyed even faster. The same social media ecosystem that amplified Satheesan's rise can become brutally unforgiving if the government stumbles badly.

Still, for the first time in a long while, Kerala politics no longer looks predictable. A weakened but still highly organised Left. A Congress government carrying enormous expectations. Satheesan trying to convert oppositional energy into governance credibility. And Pinarayi Vijayan waiting across the aisle with decades of political experience and unfinished battles of his own. That combination is unlikely to produce a quiet five years.

The author is a National Award winner for Best Narration and an independent political analyst. Views expressed are personal.