Nobel Peace Prize 2025: Trump unlikely to win, but who will?
When it comes to this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, one thing is almost certain: US President Donald Trump will not be the winner. But the question on everyone’s mind is, who will?
The Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo is set to announce the laureate on Friday at 11:00 am (0900 GMT), bringing an end to months of speculation.
The backdrop for this year’s award is grim: armed conflicts worldwide involving at least one state reached record levels in 2024, according to Sweden’s Uppsala University, which has tracked global conflicts since 1946.
Trump’s peace claims face scepticism
Trump has repeatedly argued that he deserves the prize for resolving “eight conflicts,” but experts remain unconvinced.
“No, it will not be Trump this year,” said Swedish professor Peter Wallensteen, an expert on international affairs. “But perhaps next year? By then, the dust will have settled around his various initiatives, including the Gaza crisis.”
Nina Graeger, head of the Peace Research Institute of Oslo, cautioned against equating Trump’s actions with Nobel ideals.
“Beyond trying to broker peace for Gaza, we have seen policies that actually go against the intentions and what’s written in the will of (Alfred) Nobel, notably to promote international cooperation, the fraternity of nations and disarmament,” Graeger said.
She added that Trump’s record contains multiple actions contrary to the prize’s spirit, including withdrawing the US from international organisations and multilateral treaties, launching trade wars, threatening to take Greenland by force, deploying the National Guard in US cities, and undermining academic freedom and freedom of expression.
Jorgen Watne Frydnes, chair of the Nobel committee, emphasised the importance of assessing the complete picture.
“We take the complete picture into account,” he said. “The whole organisation or the complete personality of that person matters, but what we first and foremost look at is what they have been actually achieving for the sake of peace.”
Who could take the Prize?
This year, 338 individuals and organisations have been nominated, with nominations kept secret for 50 years. Tens of thousands of people, including lawmakers, former laureates, university professors, and Nobel committee members, are eligible to propose candidates.
In 2024, the award went to Japan’s atomic bomb survivors’ group Nihon Hidankyo for its efforts to ban nuclear weapons.
With no clear frontrunner in 2025, several names are circulating in Oslo. These include:
- Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a network of volunteers risking their lives to help those affected by war and famine
- Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny
- Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, an election watchdog
Halvard Leira, director of the Norwegian Institute for International Affairs, noted a trend in recent years toward “micro” initiatives aligned with classical peace ideals.
“The Nobel committee’s choices in recent years have demonstrated a return to more micro things, somewhat closer to classical ideas of peace, with a focus on human rights, democracy, freedom of the press and women,” he said. “My hunch would probably just perhaps be for a not that controversial candidate this year.”
Possible institutional winners
Observers suggest the committee could also recognise international organisations or tribunals, such as:
- UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres
- UN agencies like UNHCR or UNRWA
- International tribunals such as the International Court of Justice or the International Criminal Court
- Advocates for press freedom, including the Committee to Protect Journalists and Reporters Without Borders
Alternatively, the Nobel committee could follow its tradition of selecting a completely unexpected winner, keeping the world guessing until the official announcement.