Netanyahu leads Israel election but falls short of majority; can Arab parties decide who governs?

Tel Aviv: A surge in Arab-Israeli voter turnout has emerged as a decisive factor in Israel's parliamentary election, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc short of a majority and potentially giving Arab parties a crucial role in determining the country's next government. But as vote counting nears completion, Netanyahu's allies have intensified allegations of foreign funding and electoral irregularities against Arab political groups, triggering a fresh controversy over the election results.

With nearly all votes counted from Tuesday's election, Netanyahu's bloc is projected to secure 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while opposition parties led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot are expected to win 48 seats.

Both blocs remain short of the 61 seats required to form a government.

The two Arab political formations, Raam and the Joint List, are projected to win a combined 19 seats, an unprecedented result driven by exceptionally high participation among Arab-Israeli voters.

Their performance has complicated Netanyahu's efforts to remain in power while potentially offering the opposition a path towards a parliamentary majority.

However, allegations of foreign interference and electoral misconduct, which remain unproven, have cast uncertainty over the political process.

Record Arab turnout reshapes election results

The election witnessed unprecedented participation among Arab-Israelis, descendants of Palestinians who remained in the territory following Israel's establishment in 1948.

The increased turnout came amid growing anger over the treatment of Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, as well as statements by Israeli far-right politicians targeting the Arab community.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir was among those whose remarks drew criticism, with calls for Arab citizens to face measures similar to those imposed on Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.

The strong Arab vote has emerged as a significant obstacle to Netanyahu's hopes of securing another parliamentary majority.

Together, Raam and the Joint List are on course to win 19 seats, potentially giving them substantial influence over the formation of the next government.

Although the opposition could theoretically secure a majority with support from Arab parties, Eisenkot has so far been reluctant to pursue such an arrangement amid sustained attacks from Netanyahu and his allies.

Netanyahu had repeatedly warned his right-wing Jewish supporters during the campaign that voting for the opposition could result in Arab parties gaining influence over the government.

Netanyahu's bloc alleges foreign funding

As the election results began pointing towards a hung parliament, Netanyahu's Likud party intensified accusations that Arab political groups had benefited from foreign funding.

The allegations centred on claims that Raam had received money from Qatar, the Gulf state that has maintained channels of communication with Hamas.

Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, who heads Israel's Central Elections Committee, requested an investigation by the Shin Bet domestic security agency into the allegations.

"The Raamgate scandal is a political earthquake. Israel's elections have been stolen!" Netanyahu's Likud party said.

However, government officials have not publicly presented evidence substantiating claims of widespread electoral wrongdoing.

Raam leader Mansour Abbas rejected the accusations, saying his party had "no connection whatsoever to the affair".

He also welcomed an investigation into the claims.

The Joint List, an alliance of three Arab-majority parties, accused Netanyahu and his allies of launching a "campaign of incitement" that "exposes their fear" of Arab citizens' growing political influence.

Election officials reject claims of widespread fraud

The controversy intensified after Netanyahu alleged during voting that Arab parties had been caught with envelopes containing cash.

His Likud party continued circulating the allegations on Thursday, even as election officials rejected suggestions that the reported incident indicated widespread irregularities.

Police confirmed the arrest of three suspects in connection with the case.

However, the Central Elections Committee described it as an isolated local incident.

Dean Livne, acting director general of the committee, said allegations suggesting widespread problems with the election were "entirely groundless".

The Shin Bet also cautioned that its investigation had not concluded.

The security agency stressed that the inquiry was not intended to "cast aspersions or place blame on an entire sector that went out to vote in a democratic and lawful manner".

Israeli President Isaac Herzog called for the allegations to be investigated but warned against stigmatising the wider Arab-Israeli community over unproven claims.

Opposition accuses Netanyahu of undermining election results

Eisenkot, whose opposition bloc is projected to secure 48 seats, urged authorities to investigate the allegations without political interference.

He said he had received briefings from the Shin Bet and the Central Elections Committee but cautioned against drawing conclusions before the investigation was completed.

It was "too early to understand what happened, and whether anything happened at all", Eisenkot said.

He nevertheless accused Netanyahu and Likud of attempting to undermine the legitimacy of the election outcome.

"It's already clear that Likud and Netanyahu have embarked on a coordinated, organised campaign seeking to delegitimise the results of the election."

Left-wing politician Yair Golan also accused Netanyahu of manufacturing controversy after failing to secure a parliamentary majority.

"He is trying to challenge the election results," Golan said.

The accusations have heightened political tensions as Israel awaits the final allocation of parliamentary seats.

Arab parties open to cooperation, but not coalition membership

Despite the unprecedented electoral performance of Arab parties, their role in forming the next government remains uncertain.

Yousef Jabareen, head of the Joint List, told AFP that his party was willing to cooperate with opposition forces to remove Netanyahu from power.

However, he ruled out joining an opposition-led government.

The distinction could prove crucial in the negotiations ahead, as cooperation from outside a coalition may influence parliamentary voting without necessarily translating into formal participation in government.

On Thursday, Jabareen accused Netanyahu of launching a "campaign of incitement against Arab citizens".

Meanwhile, Ben Gvir called for the "immediately" ordered arrests of Arab party leaders, further escalating the confrontation.

Qatar rejects allegations as political uncertainty deepens

The latest controversy has also drawn attention to Netanyahu's own political connections to Qatar.

Two of his aides were arrested last year over allegations that they had received payments from the Gulf state.

Netanyahu has also faced scrutiny over his government's earlier approach to Qatar's financial support for Hamas rule in Gaza.

For years, Netanyahu tacitly supported the arrangement in the belief that it would help maintain stability, an approach that collapsed following the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023.

Qatar rejected the latest allegations concerning Arab political parties, describing them as "ridiculous and dangerous".

The accusations have surfaced at a particularly sensitive moment for Israel, with renewed concerns over the possibility of Israeli and US military action against Iran.

Israel faces uncertain government formation

Tuesday's election was Israel's first parliamentary vote since the October 7, 2023 attacks.

The outcome has left both Netanyahu and Eisenkot without a clear parliamentary majority.

Netanyahu's bloc is projected to win 53 seats, eight short of the required 61, while the opposition's 48 seats leave it 13 short.

The projected 19 seats for Arab parties have therefore become central to the political calculations surrounding the formation of the next government.

Their electoral success reflects a major shift in Arab-Israeli voter participation, but the allegations directed against them have also intensified divisions over the legitimacy of the results.

With the vote count nearing completion, the central question is no longer simply which bloc has won the most seats, but whether the opposition can translate the unprecedented Arab voter turnout into sufficient parliamentary support to form a government.

For Netanyahu, the challenge is equally significant: his bloc leads the election projections, but the numbers do not yet provide a clear route to another term in office.