US inflation, crude oil, Iran conflict to drive gold and silver prices this week
New Delhi: Gold and silver prices are likely to remain sensitive to upcoming US inflation data, crude oil movements and geopolitical developments in West Asia this week, with investors closely tracking signals on the global interest rate outlook, analysts said.
Markets will also monitor consumer price data from Germany and China, GDP figures from the Eurozone, Japan and the UK, and China’s trade data, they added.
"US inflation numbers would be the key trigger for bullion markets amid considerable speculation over the interest rate outlook," Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for August 2026 is scheduled to be released on September 11.
"In gold, the prices look for resistance at Rs 1.57 lakh per 10 grams, while in the case of silver we still maintain a positive bias till prices are above support at Rs 2.31 lakh per kg," Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said.
On the domestic market, gold futures for October delivery declined Rs 3,514, or 2.2 per cent, last week to Rs 1.52 lakh per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange. Silver futures fell Rs 4,786, or nearly 2 per cent, to Rs 2.37 lakh per kg.
"MCX gold witnessed volatile moves this week, with the first half seeing continued profit booking following last Friday's correction after the Fed indicated the possibility of a rate hike," Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said.
In international markets, Comex gold futures for December delivery fell USD 53.3, or nearly 1.2 per cent, to end the week at USD 4,476.6 per ounce. Silver declined 1.52 per cent to USD 66.75 per ounce in New York.
Mer said gold prices came under pressure on Friday after stronger-than-expected US jobs data raised expectations of a possible Federal Reserve rate hike later this month.
Gaurav Garg, Head of Research at brokerage platform Lemonn, said bullion sold off as geopolitical concerns increasingly emerged as a rate risk rather than triggering a traditional safe-haven demand.
However, dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and indications that the Iran escalation could be contained pulled back rate-hike expectations during the week, leading to a retreat in the US dollar and bond yields, he added.
Silver saw sharper swings in both directions as its industrial demand is also sensitive to the interest rate trajectory, Garg said.
Meanwhile, central banks globally continue to diversify their reserves. According to World Gold Council data, the People's Bank of China bought 20 tonnes of gold, marking its 21st consecutive month of purchases. Its year-to-date buying has reached 60 tonnes, while total gold reserves stand at 2,366 tonnes.