Samvat 2082: From JSW Energy to L&T, analysts pick 10 stocks to buy this Diwali

HDFC Securities has released a investment report focusing on the 'Outlook for Samvat 2082', which provides an overview of the Indian market following a "lacklustre" previous year due to factors like global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions.

Despite external headwinds, the report asserts that India is at an "inflexion point" with strong domestic fundamentals and favourable policy tailwinds, creating opportunities for long-term investors.

According to analysts, following a turbulent Samvat 2081 -- marked by foreign investor sales of ₹2.56 lakh crore, geopolitical conflicts, input cost inflation, and lackluster single-digit earnings growth for Nifty-50 companies -- investors are encouraged to anticipate a more stable environment that rewards disciplined, bottom-up stock selection.

The current market weakness is primarily driven by global uncertainty and trade tensions, rather than domestic factors, offering long-term investors opportunities to accumulate quality stocks at attractive valuations.

Samvat 2082: Market Outlook

The US-China trade war is entering a sharply escalated and unpredictable phase, with the US announcing additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1, 2025. In response, China has threatened countermeasures and implemented new export controls on rare earth minerals. This environment is expected to accelerate strategic "friendshoring," as nations diversify supply chains.

Despite these external headwinds, India's domestic growth momentum remains resilient, the report noted, adding that policy tailwinds -- including a 50 bps CRR cut, a 100 bps rate reduction, GST 2.0 reforms, and rising government capital expenditure -- position the economy at an inflexion point.

The report further stated that strong fundamentals, such as above-normal monsoons, resilient auto-capital goods demand, and moderating inflation, should counter external pressures. Expectations of double-digit FY27 earnings growth could deliver strong market returns, with mid and small caps gradually improving.

Samvat 2082: Investment strategy

According to HDFC Securities' analysts, the investment strategy for Samvat 2082 involves a meticulously constructed portfolio of ten stocks, consisting of four established mega-caps and six emerging companies. The preference is for businesses focused on domestic consumption, financials, and the power and engineering sectors.

Samvat 2082 Diwali Portfolio Picks

The following ten stocks have been recommended for potential outperformance till the next Diwali, based on robust fundamentals and attractive valuations:

1. Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd (AABL)

Industry: Alcoholic Beverages

Last Traded Price (as of 13th Oct, 2025): ₹1,010

Target: ₹1,182.

Key Triggers: AABL is driving superior growth through premiumization (new launches like Nicobar Gin and Hillfort Blended Malt Whisky), continued market expansion (planning a pan-India presence by expanding into Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, and Goa), and operational efficiencies via backward integration (on-site ENA, bottling, and Ethanol plants). The expected correction in raw material prices coupled with improving realisations should lead to gross margin improvement.

2. Bharti Airtel Ltd (BAL)

Industry: Telecom

Last Traded Price (as of 13th Oct, 2025): ₹1,955

Target: ₹2,244

Key Triggers: The company is leveraging its market position in the Indian telecom industry. Growth is expected to be driven by anticipated tariff hikes in H2FY26, which should boost Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) toward the targeted ₹300. Revenue and EBITDA are also supported by the consolidation of Indus Towers into the company’s financials, effective November 2024. Additionally, BAL is targeting new opportunity areas such as CPaaS, Data Centre, and Cyber Security.

3. Happy Forgings Ltd (HFL)

Industry: Auto Ancillaries

Last Traded Price (as of 13th Oct, 2025): ₹921

Target: ₹1,083

Key Triggers: HFL is the fourth largest engineering-led manufacturer of heavy forged components in India. It is positioned for export growth due to India’s cost competitiveness and technological advancements, making it an attractive alternative sourcing destination to China. The company has announced significant capex plans (₹650 crore) to establish advanced forging capabilities and secured large future orders (₹1600 crore in FY25).

4. IDFC First Bank Ltd (IDFCFB)

Industry: BFSI – Pvt. Bank

Last Traded Price (as of 13th Oct, 2025): ₹73.7

Target: ₹88.5

Key Triggers: The bank is executing a retailisation strategy, with the wholesale book share declining to 19%. Management expects Net Interest Margins (NIMs) to bottom out in Q2FY26 and recover starting Q3FY26, aiming for a 5.8% exit margin in Q4FY26. The bank has built a strong liability franchise (CASA ratio of 48%) and is targeting to reduce its cost-to-income ratio below 65% by FY27.

5. JSW Energy Ltd (JSWEL)

Industry: Power

Last Traded Price (as of 13th Oct, 2025): ₹544.5

Target: ₹639

Key Triggers: JSW Energy achieved its Strategy 2.0 goal of 20 GW capacity by FY25 five years ahead of schedule, raising the target to 30 GW by 2030. The company maintains a robust financial profile and healthy cash flow visibility, supported by high credit ratings despite an ambitious ₹1,30,000 crore capex plan. Revenue stability is ensured as 87% of its total portfolio has Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) signed up.

6. Larsen & Toubro Ltd (L&T)

Industry: Infrastructure

Last Traded Price (as of 13th Oct, 2025): ₹3,770

Target: ₹4,243.

Key Triggers: L&T, India's leading engineering and construction firm, is backed by a robust order book of ₹6.1 lakh crore (as of June ’25). Execution is ramping up, particularly across mega projects in the Middle East. The company is pursuing strategic entry into future growth areas like green hydrogen, semiconductor design, and data centers. Margin improvement is anticipated from FY27E, driven by an increase in the hydrocarbon project mix.

7. MSTC Ltd

Industry: Metals

Last Traded Price (as of 13th Oct, 2025): ₹530.

Target: ₹673

Key Triggers: MSTC, a Government of India enterprise under the Ministry of Steel, holds a dominant position in India’s e-auction and e-procurement landscape. The company benefits from strong government backing and operates on an asset-light business model. Its strategic advantage lies in its nearly monopolistic status in the emerging area of vehicle scrapping.

8. Northern ARC Capital Ltd (NACL)

Industry: BFSI – NBFC

Last Traded Price (as of 13th Oct, 2025): ₹270

Target: ₹333.5

Key Triggers: NACL caters to underserved households and businesses, tapping into significant untapped credit potential, especially since rural areas (47% of GDP) receive only 9% of banking credit. The company operates on a multi-channel offering (Lending, Placements, Fund Management) and maintains robust asset quality with low GNPA/NNPA ratios (1.1%/0.6%) due to its conservative credit policy.

9. Pidilite Industries Ltd

Industry: FMCG

Last Traded Price (as of 13th Oct, 2025): ₹1,513.5

Target: ₹1,717

Key Triggers: Pidilite holds a dominant position and quasi-monopoly market share in consumer adhesives and sealants (brands like Fevicol). The company's ability to sustain margins due to pricing power, even amidst raw material surges, is a key strength, and margins are now above pre-COVID levels following VAM price moderation. Future growth drivers include deeper penetration in rural and semi-urban areas and expansion in new categories like Waterproofing and Tile Adhesives.

10. Sheela Foam Ltd (SFL)

Industry: Home Furnishing

Last Traded Price (as of 13th Oct, 2025): ₹678.

Target: ₹837

Key Triggers: SFL is the largest manufacturer of foam and mattresses in India, holding approximately 30% market share domestically. It is positioned to capitalize on urbanization and rising per capita income. A major growth driver is the acquisition and integration of Kurlon (Oct-2023), which is expected to fuel margin expansion through cost savings and visible synergy benefits over the next 2-3 years. The company is executing a multi-pronged growth strategy including aggressive channel expansion and e-commerce acceleration.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations belong solely to the broking firm, not Mathrubhumi. Before making investment decisions, please consult a certified financial expert, as market conditions and individual circumstances can change rapidly.