Smaller cities to drive India’s quick commerce boom to $57 billion by 2030: Morgan Stanley
New Delhi: India's quick commerce (QC) market is set to grow significantly, reaching a total addressable market (TAM) of $57 billion by 2030, according to a revised forecast by Morgan Stanley.
The previous estimate stood at $42 billion. The upward revision comes as QC adoption rises steadily across smaller cities and towns, where online order volumes are surging.
The global brokerage has also increased its gross order value (GOV) estimates for India’s quick commerce sector by 9–11 per cent for FY26 to FY28.
Key growth drivers for the sector in the near future include sustained GOV momentum, improving margins in food delivery, and a stable competitive environment. Operators such as Blinkit, Instamart, Zepto, and Flipkart Minutes continue to strengthen their market presence and logistics capabilities.
Eternal — the renamed Zomato — is expected to see its QC operations follow a profitability path similar to its core food delivery business. Morgan Stanley noted that Eternal’s leadership in both segments puts it in a unique position to dominate India’s growing profit pool in digital commerce.
The sector’s attractiveness is further underscored by global investment trends. A KPMG report titled Venture Pulse shows global VC funding rising from $349.4 billion in 2023 to $368.3 billion in 2024, with India’s quick commerce segment emerging as a favoured destination.
Additionally, Bain & Company reported in April that e-commerce and QC channels are growing 2–3 times faster in value compared to traditional and modern retail trade, reducing the reliance on extensive distribution networks for market entry.
Digital payments are also facilitating growth, with 45 per cent of Indian internet users now opting for online transaction methods.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently noted that private final consumption remains a bright spot in the economy, powered in large part by e-commerce and quick commerce. The RBI added that it is vital to encourage competition within the sector rather than impose restrictive regulations.
(With IANS input)