Diwali stock picks 2026: HDFC Securities bets on power, defence, infra and consumption for Samvat 2083

As Dalal Street ushers in the auspicious new year of Samvat 2083, domestic brokerage firm HDFC Securities (Prime Research) has rolled out its flagship 'MoneyFest 2026 — Diwali Picks' report. Advocating a bottom-up investment approach, the brokerage has handpicked 10 high-conviction stocks** across key sectors designed to generate capital appreciation over a one-year investment horizon till next Diwali.

The portfolio comprises seven mega-cap market leaders and three mid-and-small-cap contenders, balancing defensive stability with growth. The selection focuses on structural multi-year themes -- including infrastructure capex, power demand, defense indigenisation, export competitiveness, and domestic consumption.

* Ambuja Cement Ltd (Cement) is recommended with a buy range of Rs 347 to Rs 362 and an add-on-dips level of Rs 325, targeting a price of Rs 481. Growth is anchored by aggressive capacity expansions aimed at reaching 134 MTPA by FY29-end, the pending corporate merger of ACC and Orient Cement, and rising green-power penetration.

* Adani Power Ltd (Power) carries a recommended accumulation range of Rs 185 to Rs 195 and an add-on-dips level of Rs 170, with a target price of Rs 234. The company is supported by its 23.7 GW expansion pipeline targeting 45 GW by FY32, strong baseload power demand, and long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) covering about 95% of operational capacity.

* Coal India Ltd (Energy) has a suggested buy range of Rs 389 to Rs 405 and an add-on-dips price of Rs 355, aiming for a target of Rs 490. Its key catalysts include a massive production target of 1.5 billion tonnes by FY30, the execution of 36 new coal projects over the next five years, and cost-control initiatives through workforce rationalization.

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* Bharat Electronics Ltd (Aerospace/Defence) is recommended in the buy range of Rs 368 to Rs 378 with an add-on-dips level of Rs 330, targeting Rs 475. The defence electronics leader is backed by a robust order book of Rs 68,717 crore (2.3x TTM sales as of October 1, 2026), full-year order inflow guidance of Rs 55,000 crore, and a growing $500 million export pipeline.

* Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (Automobile) is advised in a buy range of Rs 11,250 to Rs 11,650 (with dips to be added at Rs 10,400) for a target price of Rs 13,900. The automaker benefits from its 40% domestic market share, multi-powertrain offerings (CNG, hybrids, flex-fuel, BEVs), and capacity scaling toward 30 lakh units annually. Growth is also driven by expanding UV market share (Brezza, Grand Vitara, Ertiga)

* Can Fin Homes Ltd. (NBFC) carries a recommended buy band of Rs 720 to Rs 740 and an add-on-dips level of Rs 655, targeting Rs 845. It maintains pristine asset quality with Gross NPAs consistently below 1.0%, a low cost of funds backed by its AAA/AA+ credit ratings, and a low-risk borrower profile with salaried individuals making up 72% to 75% of loans.

* K P R Mill Ltd (Textiles) is recommended within a range of Rs 1,098 to Rs 1,129 with an add-on-dips price of Rs 995, targeting Rs 1,289. The integrated textile player is the single largest direct beneficiary of the India-EU FTA and the India-UK trade agreement eliminating 10–12% apparel tariffs, given that 58% of its garment revenue comes from European markets.

* Tata Steel Ltd (Metals) has a suggested buying range of Rs 168 to Rs 175 and an add-on-dips level of Rs 151, with an upside target of Rs 210. Key drivers include strong domestic demand from infrastructure and automotive sectors, the ramp-up of the expanded Kalinganagar facility, and accelerating cost-optimization programs in H2FY27.

* Emcure Pharmaceuticals Ltd (Pharmaceuticals) is advised in the buy range of Rs 1,863 to Rs 1,898 and an add-on-dips level of Rs 1,681, targeting Rs 2,208. It is propelled by market-share gains in domestic chronic and women's health segments, alongside an extensive international pipeline of over 55 niche products in Europe and 50+ products in Canada.

* Larsen & Toubro Ltd (Infrastructure) carries a buy range of Rs 3,840 to Rs 3,935 with an add-on-dips price of Rs 3,585, aiming for a target of Rs 4,458. The engineering major is underpinned by an order book of Rs 8.53 lakh crore (with 54% from international markets), a medium-term pipeline of Rs 10 lakh crore, and strategic expansion into green hydrogen, data centers, and semiconductors.

(Disclaimer: This content is strictly for educational and informational purposes and is not financial, legal, or investment advice. We are not a registered broker-dealer or financial advisor. Investing carries inherent risks; past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.)