Kerala weather: Heavy rain warning for Monday; school, college holidays depend on local conditions

Kerala is bracing for a sustained spell of intense wet weather, with meteorological authorities warning that heavy downpours will sweep across the state over the coming days. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a special weather bulletin at 15:00 IST on October 25 (Sunday), alerting residents to prepare for widespread thundershowers driven by active atmospheric systems on both sides of peninsular India.

A low-pressure area currently sits over the southeast Arabian Sea right along the Kerala coast, accompanied by an upper cyclonic circulation extending up to 3.1 kilometres above sea level. From this system, an active trough line cuts directly across Kerala towards north coastal Tamil Nadu. Meanwhile, across the eastern seaboard, a depression over the Bay of Bengal continues to gather strength. As a consequence of these dual systems, the weather office officially noted: "Increasing rainfall activity likely over Keralam for next two days".

The downpours have already begun in several pockets. Cherthala in Alappuzha recorded a massive 19 centimetres of rainfall during the 24 hours leading up to 08:30 IST on October 24 (Saturday). With weather warnings valid from 08:30 IST each morning until 08:30 IST the following day, daily routines and commuter journeys across the state face immediate disruptions.

Daily breakdown and district warning colours

For October 25 (Sunday), rainfall or thundershowers are very likely at most locations across Kerala and Lakshadweep. A top-tier Red Warning—indicating extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 20 centimetres within a single 24-hour window—has been declared for three northern districts: Malappuram, Kozhikode, and Wayanad.

Ten other districts—Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Kannur—along with Lakshadweep, remain on an Orange Warning for very heavy falls between 12 and 20 centimetres on October 25 (Sunday). Only Kasargod is placed under a lighter Yellow Warning for heavy rain between 7 and 11 centimetres.

On October 26 (Monday), rain will continue at most places. Orange alerts will persist across Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Palakkad, and Malappuram. Eight other districts—Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Kozhikode, and Wayanad—are placed under a Yellow Warning.

By October 27 (Tuesday), showers are expected at many places, with Yellow alerts covering Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Palakkad, and Malappuram. The state will see a transition from October 28 (Wednesday) through October 29 (Thursday), October 30 (Friday), and October 31 (Saturday), where rainfall activity is projected to taper off to a few places with no severe district warnings in place.

Will schools and colleges remain closed on Monday?

The forecast of heavy to very heavy rainfall has raised questions about possible school and college holidays in Kerala on Monday, October 26.

However, an IMD rain warning does not automatically mean educational institutions will remain closed. Any decision to suspend classes will depend on local weather conditions and an official order from the respective district collector or another competent authority.

Parents, students and teachers should check announcements from district administrations and their educational institutions before travelling to school or college.

Commuters should also monitor weather updates before setting out, particularly in districts forecast to receive very heavy rainfall.

Travel delays, waterlogging, and commuter safety

Anyone commuting within Kerala, particularly through hilly stretches or low-lying towns, must build substantial buffer time into their plans. The weather office warns that torrential downpours will severely cut visibility on the roads, triggering traffic snarls and delays. Waterlogging is anticipated across urban streets and low-lying plains, whilst broken branches and uprooted trees may block roads and snap overhead electricity lines.

In the high ranges, heavy saturation increases the danger of landslides, mudslides, and landslips. Furthermore, flash flood risks remain elevated in catchment areas, meaning swollen streams can submerge causeways without much notice. In their safety directive, authorities underlined: "People in the vulnerable area are advised to move to safer places".

Those travelling should adhere strictly to local traffic advisories, steer well clear of riverbanks, and avoid sheltering under weak or tin-roofed structures. Between October 25 (Sunday) and October 27 (Tuesday), thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and sudden wind gusts of 30 to 40 kmph are likely at isolated spots. Motorists and pedestrians caught outdoors during a thunderstorm should take immediate shelter in sturdy buildings rather than standing beneath solitary trees.

Coastal squalls and interstate travel caution

If your travel plans extend beyond the state or into coastal regions, note that conditions at sea and along neighbouring coasts will be particularly turbulent. Along the Kerala coast and Lakshadweep, squally winds clocking 35 to 45 kmph and gusting up to 55 kmph are expected throughout October 25 (Sunday) and October 26 (Monday). Local Cautionary Signal Number III has been hoisted across eleven Kerala ports, including Kochi, Kozhikode, Alappuzha, and Thiruvananthapuram. The maritime advisory is explicit: "Fishermen are advised not to venture in to the sea areas during the mentioned period".

Travellers driving or taking trains into Tamil Nadu should prepare for blustery conditions as well. Squalls reaching 35 to 45 kmph, gusting to 55 kmph, are forecast along the Tamil Nadu coast, the Gulf of Mannar, and the Comorin area on October 25 (Sunday) and October 26 (Monday), before shifting towards north Tamil Nadu on October 27 (Tuesday) and October 28 (Wednesday).

Those planning journeys towards Andhra Pradesh face much more severe weather. The Bay of Bengal depression is set to escalate into a cyclonic storm by the morning of October 26 (Monday) and rapidly intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm near the Andhra Pradesh coastline by the morning of October 28 (Wednesday). It is projected to make landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of October 28 (Wednesday), packing ferocious winds of 115 to 125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph. Anyone scheduled to travel towards the coastal Andhra corridor during the middle of the week should monitor transit schedules closely and check for cancellations.