Kerala’s falling birth rate shrinks polio vaccination target by over 6 lakh children

Alappuzha: Kerala’s steadily declining birth rate has led to a contraction in the number of children requiring oral polio vaccines under the state's eradication drive, official figures show. Over the past decade, the pool of eligible children under the age of five has plummeted by approximately 620,000.

In 2016, health authorities earmarked 26 lakh children under five for the vaccination campaign. By this year, that figure had dropped sharply to 19.8 lakh, with the downward trend becoming starkly visible from 2018 onwards.

Despite the shrinking numbers, the efficiency of the drive remains exceptionally high. The Department of Health typically inoculates between 88 and 96 per cent of target children on the very first day of the drive, with the remaining covered during follow-up drives over the subsequent days.

The rise of the one-child family

Public health workers attribute the drop squarely to shifting societal norms among younger couples, many of whom now firmly prefer having a single child.

Furthermore, a growing number of young adults are choosing to forgo parenthood entirely or bypass marriage altogether. This demographic shift is exacerbated by intense outward migration, as young professionals moving abroad for employment increasingly choose to settle permanently in foreign countries, further depressing local birth numbers.

State vaccine expenditure eases

The dwindling number of young children has inadvertently alleviated the financial and logistical burden on the state government.

In 2016, immunising 26 lakh children required the procurement of 130,000 vials of the oral vaccine. Today, that requirement has fallen to just 100,000 vials—a net reduction of 30,000 vials, with each standard vial sufficient to inoculate between 18 and 20 children.

Decade in review: Targeted children for polio drive

The following data tracks the steady decline of the under-five demographic targeted for vaccination over the last decade: