Did P Sarin split BJP votes in Palakkad bypoll?

As the vote counting for the Palakkad Assembly by-poll concluded on Saturday afternoon, UDF candidate and young Congress leader Rahul Mamkootathil secured a significant victory, surpassing the lead achieved by Shafi Parambil MP in the previous assembly election. For the BJP, however, the loss marked a major setback as they failed to replicate the success they had in the last assembly polls.

During the initial rounds of counting, BJP appeared to be ahead in Palakkad. However, the situation shifted dramatically as Mamkootathil gained momentum in the later rounds, ultimately securing a commanding margin over BJP candidate C. Krishnakumar. Interestingly, when analyzing the vote shares of Mamkootathil, Krishnakumar, and LDF-backed independent candidate P. Sarin, a clear pattern emerges — BJP’s votes were significantly split.

Mamkootathil secured 58,389 votes, leading BJP’s Krishnakumar by 18,840 votes. P. Sarin, the former Congress candidate who contested with LDF support, received 37,293 votes, trailing Krishnakumar by just around 2,256 votes, according to the Election Commission. Political analysts suggest that Sarin's candidacy may not have split traditional votes as initially anticipated, but rather, it appears to have drawn votes away from the BJP, severely impacting their vote share.

Sandeep Varier, following Rahul Mamkootathil’s lead, remarked that BJP had indeed lost votes in the corporation areas, noting that these votes did not necessarily go to Mamkootathil alone.

While BJP’s C. Krishnakumar had led in the early rounds, Mamkootathil surged ahead after 10 rounds of counting, securing a 15,000-vote lead. Sarin’s candidacy is believed to have diverted crucial votes away from BJP, inadvertently benefiting Mamkootathil.

The by-poll battle in Palakkad was closely contested between the BJP and Congress-led UDF. Krishnakumar initially led in the postal ballots but eventually slipped to second place behind Mamkootathil.

The Palakkad bypoll was held after Congress leader Shafi Parambil vacated the seat following his election to the Lok Sabha from Vadakara in the general elections earlier this year. The vote counting took place at Victoria College, where the strong room was opened at 8 am. Among the 10 candidates contesting, the main contenders were Rahul Mamkootathil from the Congress-led UDF, C. Krishnakumar from the BJP-led NDA, and P. Sarin from the CPM-led LDF.