Can India keep importing Russian oil without straining US ties?
New Delhi: The United States has allowed its short-term waiver on Russian crude oil shipments to expire. This waiver had made it easier for oil already loaded on ships to reach global buyers, even if the cargo involved sanctioned companies or vessels.
With the waiver now over, the US has returned to stricter enforcement of its sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil trade.
Why the waiver was introduced
The waiver was meant to prevent sudden disruption in global oil supply. It ensured that crude already at sea before a cut-off date could still be delivered to buyers.
This helped keep global oil markets stable during a period of geopolitical tension and uncertainty in key shipping routes.
India increased Russian oil imports during the waiver period
India took advantage of the waiver to increase its imports of Russian crude. Indian refiners bought more discounted oil while it was easier to ship and settle deals.
At its peak during the waiver period, India’s imports of Russian oil rose to nearly 2 million barrels per day in March 2026. This made Russia one of India’s biggest oil suppliers.
Why Russian oil became important for India
Russia became a key supplier for India after global energy trade shifted due to sanctions and changing supply routes.
Indian refiners were attracted by:
- Lower prices compared to other suppliers
- Large availability of crude
- Flexible shipping options during the waiver period
Even before the waiver, Russia was already a major source of oil for India.
What changes after the waiver ends
With the waiver now expired, India is not expected to stop buying Russian oil, but the way trade happens may change.
Indian companies may:
- Avoid dealing directly with sanctioned Russian firms
- Use trading intermediaries more often
- Follow stricter compliance checks for shipping and payments
This may make transactions more complex but not stop the trade completely.
Impact on India’s oil supply
India depends on imports for most of its crude oil needs, so it continues to buy from many countries.
After the waiver ends:
- Russian oil may still remain a major source
- Imports could adjust slightly depending on shipping and compliance rules
- Refiners may increase sourcing from other regions if needed
India’s overall strategy is to buy oil from as many countries as possible to keep supplies stable.
Global oil market situation
Global oil supply is already affected by geopolitical tensions and shipping risks in certain regions.
Because of this:
- Oil prices may remain sensitive
- Supply chains may stay unstable
- Buyers like India continue to look for cheaper and reliable sources
The end of the US waiver does not stop India from buying Russian oil. It mainly makes trade more complicated and carefully monitored. India is expected to continue imports, but through more indirect and regulated channels.