IMD: Central and Southern India to get beneficial rain; Northwest heartland stays dry

New Delhi: Central and Southern India are poised for a period of beneficial rainfall from January through March, while the northwest agricultural heartland, including Punjab and Haryana, is expected to see below-average precipitation, the national weather office announced Thursday.

Despite the dry outlook for the northwest, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated that the rabi (winter) crop remains secure. During a press conference, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra explained that the region’s robust irrigation systems and high reservoir levels, replenished by a strong previous monsoon, would mitigate any rainfall deficit.

The temperature forecast suggests a colder start to the year for some, with Bihar, Vidarbha, and the Northeast likely to experience one to three additional "cold days." Conversely, Rajasthan is expected to have a milder winter with fewer cold days than usual.

While minimum temperatures for January are predicted to stay below normal across much of the country, localised exceptions include parts of the northwest, northeast, and the southern peninsula, where nighttime temperatures may stay above average.

Mohapatra noted that December remained almost entirely dry due to a lack of western disturbances, the weather systems that typically bring moisture to central and northwestern India. He linked this shift in weather patterns directly to the broader impacts of a changing climate.

"The western disturbances are either moving towards north or moving too fast," Mohapatra said.

However, the lack of snow cover between December and March could be a silver lining, as it often serves as a precursor to a productive southwest monsoon. Currently, the Pacific is experiencing La Niña conditions, but global models suggest a shift to ENSO-neutral status by March.

"The ENSO neutral conditions are likely to remain dominant till June-July," Mohapatra said, noting that such conditions are generally favourable for monsoon rainfall.

The briefing also provided a retrospective on recent global warming trends. The year 2025 was ranked as the eighth-warmest since record-keeping began in 1901. The national mean land surface temperature for 2025 was 0.28 degrees Celsius higher than the 1991–2020 long-term average.

This follows the unprecedented heat of 2024, which now stands as the warmest year on record for India, featuring temperatures 0.65 degrees Celsius above the historical average.

In terms of seasonal performance, mean temperatures during the winter and pre-monsoon phases of 2025 were significantly higher than average, showing anomalies of 1.17 degrees Celsius and 0.29 degrees Celsius, respectively. By contrast, temperatures during the monsoon and post-monsoon months remained largely consistent with long-term trends, with minor anomalies of 0.09 degrees Celsius and minus 0.1 degrees Celsius.

With inputs from PTI