Trump effect? India’s Russian oil imports hit hard in January

India’s trade ties with Russia slowed sharply in January 2026, with merchandise imports plunging 40.48% year-on-year to $2.86 billion, down from $4.81 billion in January 2025, according to official data released on Monday. The steep fall was driven primarily by a reduction in crude oil purchases, which typically account for around 80% of India’s total imports from Russia.

Sources indicated that crude imports in January were estimated at roughly $2.3 billion, possibly lower. While the government released aggregate trade figures, a detailed breakdown by product category and country has not yet been published.

The contraction aligns with statements from Indian refiners that they have curtailed Russian crude purchases. Reliance Industries, India’s largest private refiner with a capacity exceeding 68 million tonnes per annum, stated on January 9 that it was not expecting any Russian crude deliveries during the month. Beyond crude oil, India imports coal, coke, fertilisers, iron, newsprint, project goods, pulses, and precious stones from Russia.

US–India dynamics and trade pressure

India’s strategic ties with the United States strengthened during the tenure of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump, with expanded cooperation across defence, technology and energy sectors. However, energy trade with Russia has remained a sensitive issue.

In 2025, Washington intensified pressure on New Delhi to reduce Russian oil purchases. The decline in Russian crude imports began after a peak of $4.73 billion in April 2025, coinciding with new US trade measures. From August 27, the US imposed an additional 25% punitive tariff on Indian merchandise exports, citing continued Russian oil imports.

In September, Russian oil imports dropped to $3.32 billion, nearly 30% lower than April levels. On January 31, President Trump said India would buy Venezuelan oil. On February 6, the US administration withdrew the 25% tariff, stating that India had committed to halting direct or indirect imports of Russian oil and agreed to increase purchases of US energy products.

India–Russia oil relationship

India’s energy relationship with Russia expanded rapidly after 2022, when Western sanctions on Moscow led to discounted Russian crude being offered to Asian buyers. As the world’s third-largest oil importer, India significantly increased purchases to manage domestic fuel costs and inflation.

Russian crude imports to India, negligible before 2022, rose to over $31 billion in 2022–23, $46.49 billion in 2023–24, and exceeded $50.28 billion in 2024–25. Russia became one of India’s top oil suppliers during this period.

Because petroleum crude accounts for the bulk of India’s imports from Russia, any adjustment in sourcing patterns is immediately reflected in overall trade figures.

Shift towards alternative suppliers

Indian refiners are reportedly evaluating increased purchases of Venezuelan crude, which may offer competitive pricing. Before US sanctions on Venezuela, India imported $14.10 billion worth of Venezuelan crude in 2012–13. Imports gradually declined due to geopolitical factors and fell to zero in 2021–22.

The January data suggests a recalibration of India’s energy sourcing strategy amid evolving geopolitical pressures. If current trends continue, imports from Russia may decline further in the coming months as India diversifies towards alternative suppliers, including Venezuela and the United States.