FSB head Alexander Bortnikov, 70, is Putin’s man from his KGB days and belongs to the inner circle called ‘siloviky’, Russian for enforcers or strongmen (Kremlin photo)
Did the West know comprehensively that Russia would go to war, and how it would go about it? Published material seems to show they did.
Two separate Research papers and articles by scholars at the Royal United Services Institution with access to original documents spell out areas of surveys conducted by the Russian intelligence agencies to determine leanings, resistance levels, motivations, and popular perceptions within Ukraine prior to planning their operations. This pre-invasion research apparently had suggested that Ukraine was fertile ground for subversion, while cautioning that the shock of war could transform Ukrainian willingness to resist in unpredictable ways.
Social surveys had been conducted across Ukraine in February 2022 commissioned by the 9th Directorate of the Fifth Service of Russia’s Federal Security Service {FSB}. These indicated how Russian officials viewed Ukraine - Ukrainians were pessimistic about the future and apathetic about politics, did not trust politicians, political parties or most of Ukraine’s domestic institutions. Their main worries were inflation and the cost of living, both seen as rising.
Different political figures and parties had been studied to get details of which ones to prioritise for co-option, coercion, marginalisation or elimination. From a national perspective, the Ukrainian population appeared to possess only a moderate level of resolve.
Ukrainian civil society organisations were to be ruthlessly targeted by Russian Special Forces, directed by the FSB. If the Russian military could displace the Ukrainian government in Kyiv, the FSB believed that citizens of Eastern Ukraine would not be sorry to see the political parties and politicians replaced. An RUSI Special research report had even forecast the probable axes of advance that may be taken by the invading Russian Army, which in hindsight seems remarkably accurate.
What bothers the average student of affairs is how the democratic, “peace-loving” Western countries did not do anything to delay the outbreak of what they knew would be an inevitable and destructive war, and instead cheered the hapless Ukrainians towards sure catastrophe.
{English original of the article published in Malayalam in the opinion page of Mathrubhumi daily dated March 3, 2022}
The alumnus of Sainik School, Kazhakoottam, was the deputy defence attaché in the Indian embassy in Beijing and a senior Intelligence official in the army HQ
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